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Re: (meteorobs) Five predictions for the Leonids - are those all?
Hello,
There are some possible errors in the summary of predictions of the 2002
Leonids.
A) Mc-Naught & Asher: 1st maximum, FWHM 105 min.
In their paper in WGN in the table 4 they say 105. But in 9.Outburst widths
they say: "A value of 130 min would seem a reasonable working figure."
B) Langbroek: According to their paper in MNRAS section 5 and note 1:
Minimum ZHR 3000 for 4-rev and 2500 for 7-rev
Maximum ZHRs 6500 for 4-rev and 7100 for 7 rev
The reduction method of IMO leads to ZHR values on a slightly different
scale. This difference amounts to a factor of 1.25.
This is:
1st max: min ZHR 7-rev 2500 / 1.25 = 2000
1st max: max ZHR 7-rev 7100 / 1.25 = 5680 approx. 5700
2nd max :min ZHR 4-rev 3000 / 1.25 = 2400
2nd max: max ZHR 4-rev 6500 / 1.25 = 5200
Sincerely,
Manuel Solano Ruiz
Secretary of SOMYCE
msolanor@terra.es
------- Original Message ------------
Date: Mon, 4 Nov 2002 21:20:26 +0100
From: Daniel Fischer <dfischer@astro.uni-bonn.de>
Subject: (meteorobs) Five predictions for the Leonids - are those all?
Let's start with the crucial list right away:
First maximum Second maximum
Lyytinen et al. 3500 at 4:03 (106 min FWHM) and 2600 at 10:40 (122 min)
Mc-Naught & Asher 1000 (810-2000) at 3:56+/-5 (105 min) and
6000 (2900-6000) at 10:34+/-5
(71 min)
Jenniskens 5900 at 3:48 (38 min) and 5400 at 10:23 (36 min)
Vaubaillon & Colas 3400+/-300 at 4:04 (120 min) and 3000+/-300 at 10:47
(180 min)
Langbroek 2000 (most likely) to 5200 and 2400 (most likely) to
5700
Those are the latest predictions I have found in
Lyytinen, http://www.ursa.fi/ursa/jaostot/meteorit/leoeng02.html
McNaught & Asher, WGN Vol. 30 #5 [Okt. 2002] 132-43
Jenniskens, http://leonid.arc.nasa.gov/ACM2002.pdf
Vaubaillon, http://www.bdl.fr/s2p/leonides/predictions/Leonid_forecast.html
Langbroek, MNRAS Vol. 334 [Aug. 2002] L16-20 (ZHR numbers for IMO formula) -
did I miss any key references in the literature or 'official' websites?
Let the show begin (and Peter Jenniskens be the best this time, as I'm
heading for Tenerife for the first maximum :-) ...
Daniel Fischer
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