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Re: (meteorobs) Chances of another Meteor Storm?

In a message dated 11/21/02 10:39:54 PM Eastern Standard Time, 
suejam1@juno.com writes:

<< As I recall, there was some discussion about the Perseids in 2004
 possibly producing rates of several hundred/hour, for many hours.  Also,
 in the same discussion, the Draconids of 2005 were mentioned.  Now You
 mention these others, and it is obvious for anyone paying attention that
 the possibility of some truly fine Meteor Showers is likely in our future
 over the next several years.  The true Meteor Aficionado will greatly
 appreciate those nears possibilities that are just "around the corner."   >>

    Esko Lyytinen is the person who has indicated possible meteor storms with 
the Perseids: 2004 over Europe and 2028 for the Americas.  You can read all 
about these at:  <A HREF="http://www.sci.fi/~fmbb/astro/perseids.htm">
http://www.sci.fi/~fmbb/astro/perseids.htm</A> 

    As for the Draconids/Giacobinids, the best chance of enhanced activity 
may come in the year 2018.  As I pointed out in WGN 26-5 (October 1998), the 
Earth will follow Comet 21P/Giacobini-Zinner to the nodal crossing point by 
just 22.7 days, and the separation between the orbits of Earth and comet will 
be 0.017 AU.  This is roughly midway between the C-E value for the Draconid 
storm observed from Europe in 1933 (50 to 480 meteors per minute) and a heavy 
1985 shower (ZHR ~ 600 to 800) seen from Japan.  

    I do not yet know of any dust-trail predictions yet made for 2018, but 
applying the old "analog method" of matching our orbit relative to that of 
the parent comet, the Earth is due to arrive at 21P's nodal crossing point at 
0h UT on October 9, which would correspond to 20h EDT (dark sky conditions) 
on October 8 along the US East Coast. Add to this that the Moon will be new 
and conditions seem ideal.

    Of course, there is also a chance of a strong, albeit brief outburst from 
the Alpha Monocerids shower in November 2005 (although the Moon will be major 
hindrance).

    And let us not forget the possibility of enhanced meteor activity from 
Comet 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3.  This comet fragmented into four separate 
pieces in 1995 and the massive expulsion of dust/debris shed from this 
fragmentation is expected to pass very close to the Earth in 2022.  According 
to a recent study by Hartung Luthen, Rainer Arlt and Michael Jager, the miss 
distance is no more than 0.0004 AU and is expected to occur at 4:55 UT on May 
31, highly favoring the USA. What's more, the Moon will be new at that time! 

    Lastly, regarding what Bob Lunsford's earlier comment regarding the 
Leonids ("In 
2032, 2065 and 2098 there may be a repeat of the 1998 fireball shower"), I 
personally do not think there will be much of a chance of a repeat 
performance of a fireball display in either 2031 or 2065.  The resonant swarm 
of large meteoric particles responsible for the dazzling display in 1998 (and 
probably 1965 as well) seem to be traveling very close to the parent comet 
55P/Tempel-Tuttle itself.  Since the comet will be perturbed by a relatively 
close pass to Jupiter in August 2029, it would also seem that the resonant 
particles will be similarly affected and stand little chance of again 
encountering Earth directly either in 2031 or 2065.  I think however, that 
Rob McNaught, David Asher or Esko Lyytinen would be in a better position than 
I to confirm this.

-- joe rao
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